Scenarioplay Use Case - Fuel Price Shock in a Logistic Company
DESIGNATION -Β Data Design with Business Relevance
Understanding business: What will happen to cash for a logistic business, if the fuel price increases?
CostΒ βΒ Β DemandΒ β CashΒ β
This was the initial question for building this scenario. We were interested in calculating a cash flow impact under certain input conditions like number of trucks, OPEX etc. to see how the monthly liquity flow changes comparing one scenario A to another scenario B.Β
Procurement Analytics Β· Scenario Planning
Contract volume scenario planner
250 trucks Β· Germany Β· Z101 fleet buffer + Z108 cash buffer Β· Illustrative data
Fleet inputs Z101 β linear growth with capacity limit
Scenario ABase case
1.75 β¬/L
Scenario BPrice shock
2.25 β¬/L
Retail
Supermarkets, discounters, food & beverage
Metric: tours / month
Scenario A
Est. tonnesβ
Trucks req.β
Fleet shareβ
Fuel cost/moβ
Scenario B
Est. tonnesβ
Trucks req.β
Fleet shareβ
Fuel cost/moβ
Industry
Manufacturing, automotive, chemicals, machinery
Metric: tonnes / month
Scenario A
Trucks req.β
Fleet shareβ
Fuel cost/moβ
Scenario B
Trucks req.β
Fleet shareβ
Fuel cost/moβ
Construction
Building materials, aggregates, steel, site logistics
Metric: tonnes / month
Scenario A
Trucks req.β
Fleet shareβ
Fuel cost/moβ
Scenario B
Trucks req.β
Fleet shareβ
Fuel cost/moβ
Scenario A β fleet summary
Total trucks req.
β
Fleet utilisation
β
Total fuel OPEX
β
Scenario B β fleet summary
Total trucks req.
β
Fleet utilisation
β
Total fuel OPEX
β
Financial assumptions β per scenario Z108 β cash buffer
Scenario ABase case β financial conditions
β¬ / tour
β¬ / tonne
β¬ / tonne
Kβ¬ β wages, maint., tolls, admin
K⬠current liquidity
K⬠minimum reserve
Scenario BShock β financial conditions
β¬ / tour
β¬ / tonne
β¬ / tonne
Kβ¬ β wages, maint., tolls, admin
K⬠current liquidity
K⬠minimum reserve
Scenario A β cash buffer (Z108)
Gross revenue
β
Total OPEX
β
Free cash flow
β
Usable buffer
β
Cash runway
β
Scenario B β cash buffer (Z108)
Gross revenue
β
Total OPEX
β
Free cash flow
β
Usable buffer
β
Cash runway
β
Scenario comparison β visual diff
Trucks required by group
A vs. B Β· out of 250 fleet
Scenario A
Scenario B
Fuel OPEX by group
Monthly cost Β· A vs. B Β· Kβ¬
Scenario A
Scenario B
Fleet capacity allocation
Stacked trucks Β· ceiling 250
Retail
Industry
Construct.
Spare
P&L waterfall A vs. B
Revenue β fuel OPEX β fixed OPEX β FCF Β· Kβ¬
Scenario A
Scenario B
Visual analytics instead of Excel: This scenario cash planning is based on two different model types: first you have a linear integrationΒ with the fuel price as driving factor and second a buffer model which is represented by the number of trucks and the initial cash amount.Β
Get in touch, if building visual scenarios sounds relevant. We are glad to hear about your project.
Mail to office @designation.eu
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