Scenarioplay Use Case - Fuel Price Shock in a Logistic Company
DESIGNATION -Β Data Design with Business Relevance
Understanding business: What will happen to a logistic business, if the fuel price increases?
This was the initial question for building this scenario. We were interested in calculating a cash flow impact under certain input conditions like number of trucks, OPEX etc. to see how the monthly liquity flow changes comparing one scenario A to another scenario B.Β
Procurement Analytics Β· Scenario Planning
Contract volume scenario planner
250 trucks Β· Germany Β· Z101 fleet buffer + Z108 cash buffer Β· Illustrative data
Fleet inputs Z101 β linear growth with capacity limit
Scenario ABase case
1.75 β¬/L
Scenario BPrice shock
2.25 β¬/L
Retail
Supermarkets, discounters, food & beverage
Metric: tours / month
Scenario A
Est. tonnesβ
Trucks req.β
Fleet shareβ
Fuel cost/moβ
Scenario B
Est. tonnesβ
Trucks req.β
Fleet shareβ
Fuel cost/moβ
Industry
Manufacturing, automotive, chemicals, machinery
Metric: tonnes / month
Scenario A
Trucks req.β
Fleet shareβ
Fuel cost/moβ
Scenario B
Trucks req.β
Fleet shareβ
Fuel cost/moβ
Construction
Building materials, aggregates, steel, site logistics
Metric: tonnes / month
Scenario A
Trucks req.β
Fleet shareβ
Fuel cost/moβ
Scenario B
Trucks req.β
Fleet shareβ
Fuel cost/moβ
Scenario A β fleet summary
Total trucks req.
β
Fleet utilisation
β
Total fuel OPEX
β
Scenario B β fleet summary
Total trucks req.
β
Fleet utilisation
β
Total fuel OPEX
β
Financial assumptions β per scenario Z108 β cash buffer
Scenario ABase case β financial conditions
β¬ / tour
β¬ / tonne
β¬ / tonne
Kβ¬ β wages, maint., tolls, admin
K⬠current liquidity
K⬠minimum reserve
Scenario BShock β financial conditions
β¬ / tour
β¬ / tonne
β¬ / tonne
Kβ¬ β wages, maint., tolls, admin
K⬠current liquidity
K⬠minimum reserve
Scenario A β cash buffer (Z108)
Gross revenue
β
Total OPEX
β
Free cash flow
β
Usable buffer
β
Cash runway
β
Scenario B β cash buffer (Z108)
Gross revenue
β
Total OPEX
β
Free cash flow
β
Usable buffer
β
Cash runway
β
Scenario comparison β visual diff
Trucks required by group
A vs. B Β· out of 250 fleet
Scenario A
Scenario B
Fuel OPEX by group
Monthly cost Β· A vs. B Β· Kβ¬
Scenario A
Scenario B
Fleet capacity allocation
Stacked trucks Β· ceiling 250
Retail
Industry
Construct.
Spare
P&L waterfall A vs. B
Revenue β fuel OPEX β fixed OPEX β FCF Β· Kβ¬
Scenario A
Scenario B
Visual analytics instead of Excel: This scenario cash planning is based on two different model types: first you have a linear integrationΒ with the fuel price as driving factor and second a buffer model which is represented by the number of trucks and the cash amount.Β
Get in touch, if building visual scenarios sounds relevant.
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